[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioee71ab07":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":28,"columnUrl":30,"subscription":31,"footer":43,"text":78},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioee71ab07","摩根大通发现，散户正以黄金取代长期债券来对冲股票风险","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioee71ab07","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>摩根大通团队表示: “要使黄金配置比例从当前2.6%升至2028年的4.6%，金价需上涨110%。自周二黄金遭遇十多年来最大单日跌幅后，市场争论的焦点围绕“金价是否会重整旗鼓、再度冲高”展开。以高盛为例，该行仍坚持2026年底金价达到每盎司4900美元的目标，并认为各国央行及机构投资者的需求将为金价带来上行风险。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>“近期ETF资金流入速度及客户反馈显示，包括主权财富基金、各国央行、养老基金、私人财富管理机构及资产管理公司在内的众多长期资本配置者，正计划增加黄金持仓，将其作为投资组合的战略性分散工具。”分析师莉娜·托马斯（Lina Thomas）与达恩·斯特鲁文（Daan Struyven）在报告中表示。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>这与摩根大通由尼古拉奥斯·帕尼吉佐格鲁（Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou）牵头的策略师团队给出的“今日核心观点”一致：随着投资者越来越多地将黄金用作股票对冲工具，未来三年金价可能上涨逾一倍。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>首先，帕尼吉佐格鲁及其团队认为，近期金价暴跌是由“趋势跟踪型商品交易顾问（CTA）”抛售黄金期货合约获利导致，而非散户投资者退出黄金ETF持仓。今年以来，现货黄金价格已飙升超过56%。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>“若这一判断正确，且散户投资者并非周二黄金回调的推手，那么他们买入黄金ETF的行为，很可能并非受趋势驱动，而是由其他因素主导。”他们表示。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>策略师们认为，今年黄金ETF的买盘热潮，不能完全用“贬值交易”（因担忧美元走弱而转向黄金）这一热门逻辑来解释。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>“传统意义上的‘贬值交易’并不包含‘对冲股票风险’这一动机，但今年这一动机尤为明显——散户投资者同时买入股票与黄金，却避开了长期债券（即传统上用于对冲股票风险的资产）。”帕尼吉佐格鲁及其团队称。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>策略师们指出，2023年及2024年大部分时间里，散户投资者纷纷涌入长期债券（很可能是为对冲股价上涨风险），但今年即便股市持续攀升，他们也未重现这一行为。相反，正如图表所示，黄金成为了他们的新选择。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>私人投资者（不包括中央银行）持有的黄金量除以银行体系外持有的金融资产总量\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>策略师们测算，全球非银行投资者的黄金配置比例已升至持仓总额的2.6%。这一数据的计算方式为：将非央行持有的6.6万亿美元私人黄金持仓，除以银行体系外持有的股票、债券、现金与黄金总资产。他们表示，若“投资者用黄金替代债券对冲股票风险”的理论成立，那么当前2.6%的配置比例很可能仍然过低。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>另一推动投资者转向黄金、远离长期债券的因素，与“解放日”后的市场体验有关——当时美国总统特朗普宣布加征关税，但随后迅速下调税率。摩根大通团队称，彼时股市大幅回调，长期债券也同步下跌，这使得“用长期债券对冲股票风险”的策略失效。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>他们以ETF为参考测算，在20%的债券配置中，约有1\u002F10投向长期债券基金。若将这2%的长期债券配置替换为黄金，黄金整体配置比例将升至4.6%——若计入其他金融资产规模，这意味着金价需接近翻倍。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>更精确地说，帕尼吉佐格鲁及其团队假设：未来三年股价涨幅足以使股票配置比例升至54.6%（即互联网泡沫时期的历史峰值）；同时，未来三年债券与现金规模预计每年将增加7万亿美元。综合这两个因素，“要使黄金配置比例从当前2.6%升至2028年的4.6%，金价需上涨110%。”摩根大通团队表示。\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202510-stk\u002FUploadervdwv2ye2nul_2025_10_23_13_40_32.png","2025-10-23T20:33:02.53","2025.10.23","2025\u002F10\u002F23",33970,[22,23],"JPM","黄金","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":29,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22,23],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":32,"services":33,"recentDocuments":42},"\u003Cfigure 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":79,"search":80,"searchPlaceholder":80,"hotContent":81,"draft":82,"noData":83,"searchNoData":84,"edit":85,"editVideo":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]