[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciod6785a3f":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciod6785a3f","财报发布前，对AMD的预测展望 2025\u002F08\u002F05","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciod6785a3f","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>在过去两年AI浪潮里最惨的一家AMD，自今年4月份低点以来也涨了一倍。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>从K线图上看，AMD先从去年10月份AI最火热的时候跌了50%，再从今年AI最惨的位置涨了1倍，回到去年10月份的位置。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>1.大家可能好奇为什么AMD涨那么多，是不是拿到什么AI大订单了？\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>这个问题要业绩会上让CEO苏妈来给指引，从各家外资行跟踪来看，各种说法都有。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>有的说AMD可能已经拿到AI订单了，并且近期传出AMD产品在涨价；也有的说，可能明年才能拿到部分订单；甚至有更激进的观点说，未来AMD能拿到AI推理卡20-30%的市场份额，能抢NVDA的市场。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>为什么预期差那么大？正是因为云厂商对算力的需求太强劲，而NVDA的产能在短时间内没法满足各家厂商，但大家都等着卡用，所以就有一些外溢订单给到ASIC或者是AMD的推理卡。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>这样看，这逻辑是不是似曾相识？同样是你们买不到NVDA的卡，那可能就会来买AMD的卡，当NVDA涨的越多，AMD也同样利好的剧本。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>2.但究竟有没有订单？各家外资行都是你猜我猜大家一起猜...\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>比如，UBS在报告里提到，得益于PC和数据中心的推动，二季度的业绩有上行趋势，最乐观的预估26年DC收入有130亿美金，大概就是较今年翻一倍的水平。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>UBS称，产品涨价是真的，剩余的MI308X库存可以转卖到中国，按纯利润率计算，有可能带来1亿美元的净利润。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>但投资者不应期望会看到更多明年关于GPU的指引，因为对AMD来说，现在谈论明年还为时尚早。不过，我们预计销量将增长50%，价格也会随之走高，将AMD的目标价从150美元上调至210美元。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>从UBS的态度来看，现在就是不管有没有AI订单，AMD这位置已经足够便宜了，假设接下来真能拿到AI订单，2000多亿市值的AMD跟四万亿美元市值的NVDA相比，这个想象空间是很大的。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>美股投资网认为，AMD不能完全对标NVDA来给估值，现在还是想象时间，大家就猜究竟有没有AI订单？要是有的话，只给10%的市场份额，都够AMD困境反转了。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>3.市场上流传AMD最乐观的叙事\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>有专家访谈称OpenAI自己ASIC可能短期内无法满足需求，在跟AMD谈判，OpenAI希望未来在自身后期的需求中英伟达与NVDA各占50%的市场份额。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>因为AMD最近在卡的一些优化和适配上表现不错，提升的比较快，而且从性价比的角度看也有一定优势，预计100万张卡，后面可能英伟达占60%，AMD占40%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>如果后期AMD的卡实际表现达到宣传中的水平，那各占一半都是有可能的。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>这份激进的小作文纪要还提到，AMD和甲骨文承诺交付25万片，微软预计从AMD采购约40万片的MI350和MI355，这规模将达到NVDA的采购量，这总共65万片包括350和355X。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>这份纪要的真实性暂时未知，但如果对照外资行的反馈来看，应该是没有那么大数字的，因为如果真达到跟NVDA一样的采购量，不可能现在市场上还是你猜我猜的阶段...\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>假设这份纪要是真的，或者里面数字有一半是真的，那现在AMD还是很便宜，甚至再涨50%都不过分...\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>所以，今日AMD业绩会就是最大预期差的时候，猜测几个剧本。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>1.真有订单，业绩表现不错，但订单没那么多。可能市场消化一下接着涨，说不定明年就多订单了？\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>2.真有订单，指引业绩都超预期，那马上涨5-10%都有可能。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>3.最惨的结局，指引没多少订单，收入符合买方预期，那可能就要跌一些回去了。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>不过，从4月份到现在涨了一倍，肯定是有道理的。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>至少AMD的市值不贵，推理需求持续爆发，而AMD还真有推理卡，理论上数据跟NVDA的差距不是特别大，未来还有卖给中国互联网股的催化，相比起4万亿的NVDA，1万亿的博通，现在2800亿市值的AMD对比起来市值过于低了。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>这样的困境反转逻辑，只要验证到一部分订单是真实的，那估值模式马上就从困境反转切换为成长股了，这个故事的真实性可能是50%，但故事的赔率远远高于50%，甚至赔率超过100%都不夸张。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>从期权隐含波动率来看，市场预计今日财报波动率在±8.4%左右，等等看今日财报揭晓，究竟各家外资行猜的对不对。\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202508-stk\u002FUploader3rttdbgtqkj_2025_08_05_09_45_32.jpg","2025-08-05T16:42:59.073","2025.08.05","2025\u002F08\u002F05",33880,[22],"AMD","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":68,"summaryHtml":73,"aboutTitle":74,"aboutHtml":75,"copyrightHtml":76},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":60,"url":61},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":63,"url":64},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":66,"url":67},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[69,70,71,72],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]