[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciobc7a877f":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciobc7a877f","美股期权与预测市场罕见同步","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciobc7a877f","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">美国伊朗停火可能发生在数周内，根据\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>J.P.Morgan\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">衍生品策略团队与\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>Polymarket\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">的最新数据，给出了一个值得关注的信号。两条通常独立运行的曲线\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>--USO\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">期权隐含的冲突解决概率与预测市场的停火概率\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>--\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">正在罕见地同步上行。两个完全不同定价机制的市场，指向了相同的方向。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">核心读数\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>:\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">到\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">月底，两条线均指向约\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>50-60%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">的停火概率。期权隐含概率在\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>7\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">月后继续攀升，到\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">月达到约\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>80%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">，到\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">月接近\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>92%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">。这意味着市场的基准预期是\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>:\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">停火大概率在数周至数月内发生。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">但尾部风险不可忽视。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">美股投资网获悉，预测市场曲线在\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">月后数据截止，而期权曲线延伸至\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">月仍未触及\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>100%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">。市场对\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">长期僵局\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">的情景仍有定价。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Amundi\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">副\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>CEO Mortier\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">的判断很精准\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>:\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">停火速度的不同，将导致市场走出截然不同的路径。数周内停火\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>:\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">风险资产反弹，油价回落，化肥与粮食供应链压力释放。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">拖延数月甚至更久\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>:\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">油价维持高位，化肥断供持续，食品通胀在下半年进一步恶化。两条曲线告诉我们的是\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>:\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">市场正在为和平定价，但对战争留有余地。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\">更多投行高盛，摩根斯坦利，摩根大通研报，登陆\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan> 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]