[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciob8101389":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciob8101389","全球基金经理情绪急转直下：滞胀预期升温，私募信贷风险创纪录","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciob8101389","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">全球基金经理情绪在\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月急转直下，地缘政治风险与通胀预期重回市场焦点，取代\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">泡沫成为头号尾部风险，而私募信贷则以创纪录的比例被视为系统性信用事件的最大隐患。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">据美国银行（\u003C\u002Fspan>BofA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">）\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月全球基金经理调查（\u003C\u002Fspan>FMS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">），本月情绪综合指标从\u003C\u002Fspan>8.2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">骤降至\u003C\u002Fspan>5.6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，创六个月新低。与此同时，现金占比从\u003C\u002Fspan>3.4%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">跳升至\u003C\u002Fspan>4.3%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，为\u003C\u002Fspan>2020\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月新冠疫情冲击以来最大单月涨幅，此前触发反向\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">卖出信号\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的现金规则已回归中性区间。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美银策略师\u003C\u002Fspan>Michael Hartnett\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">指出，当前情绪已足够悲观，可支持在油价突破每桶\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元时做空原油、在美元指数升破\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">时做空美元、在美国\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年期国债收益率达\u003C\u002Fspan>5%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">时买入，以及在标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">指数触及\u003C\u002Fspan>6600\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">点时逢低建仓。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">本次调查于\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月\u003C\u002Fspan>6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">日至\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">日进行，共有\u003C\u002Fspan>210\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">位基金经理参与，管理资产规模合计\u003C\u002Fspan>5890\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">值得注意的是，尽管情绪显著降温，美银各项仓位指标距离\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">极度熊市\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">水平仍有相当距离——当前股票配置、全球广度指标等均未显示出市场大底时通常出现的极端信号，这意味着现阶段尚未形成股票和信用资产的理想战术建仓时机。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">情绪骤冷：增长预期崩塌，通胀担忧卷土重来\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">宏观预期的逆转是本次调查最引人注目的变化。全球经济增长乐观比例从上月净\u003C\u002Fspan>39%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">断崖式下跌至净\u003C\u002Fspan>7%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，为近期最大单月跌幅。与此同时，通胀预期大幅反弹——净\u003C\u002Fspan>45%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者预计未来\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个月全球\u003C\u002Fspan>CPI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">走高，而上月这一比例仅为\u003C\u002Fspan>9%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">通胀预期的跳升直接压低了降息预期。预计短期利率将下降的受访者比例从上月净\u003C\u002Fspan>46%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">收缩至净\u003C\u002Fspan>17%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，为\u003C\u002Fspan>2023\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月以来最低。对收益率曲线继续陡化的预期也明显降温，净\u003C\u002Fspan>56%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者预计\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个月至\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年期美债收益率曲线将趋陡，较上月净\u003C\u002Fspan>80%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">大幅回落。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">对全球经济形势的判断同样发生了结构性转变。在宏观情景分类上，\u003C\u002Fspan>51%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者预计未来\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个月将出现\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">滞胀\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">（低于趋势的增长叠加高于趋势的通胀），较上月的\u003C\u002Fspan>42%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">明显上升；预计\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">繁荣\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">（高增长、高通胀）的比例则从\u003C\u002Fspan>36%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">降至\u003C\u002Fspan>29%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">尽管如此，硬着陆的市场定价依然极低——仅\u003C\u002Fspan>5%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者认为经济将出现硬着陆，\u003C\u002Fspan>46%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">预计\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">不着陆\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，\u003C\u002Fspan>44%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">预计软着陆，\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">不着陆\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">已连续三个月成为市场共识。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">尾部风险易主：地缘政治登顶，私募信贷警报升级\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">市场对风险来源的判断发生了显著位移。在\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">最大尾部风险\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">问题上，\u003C\u002Fspan>37%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者将地缘政治冲突列为首要威胁，较上月的\u003C\u002Fspan>14%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">大幅攀升；上月位居榜首的\u003C\u002Fspan>\"AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">泡沫\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">则跌至仅\u003C\u002Fspan>10%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的支持率。与伊朗相关的地缘政治紧张态势，被视为驱动本轮情绪转变的重要催化剂之一。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在系统性信用风险的来源判断上，\u003C\u002Fspan>63%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者将私募信贷列为最可能引爆系统性信用事件的领域，这一比例创下调查有史以来最高纪录。与此同时，\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月信用违约风险指标急升至\u003C\u002Fspan>2025\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>4\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月以来最高，净\u003C\u002Fspan>46%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者认为违约风险高于正常水平，而上月这一比例仅为\u003C\u002Fspan>17%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">对应金融稳定性的其他分项指标亦出现全面走弱迹象。\u003C\u002Fspan>FMS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">金融市场稳定风险指标从\u003C\u002Fspan>-1.8\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">升至\u003C\u002Fspan>1.2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，在\u003C\u002Fspan>7\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">项风险因子中有\u003C\u002Fspan>6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">项相对\u003C\u002Fspan>1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月份出现恶化，涵盖新兴市场风险、信用风险、商业周期风险、货币政策风险、交易对手风险和地缘政治风险。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">流动性状况虽然整体仍属正面，但净\u003C\u002Fspan>47%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者评价流动性为正面，较两个月前的峰值\u003C\u002Fspan>66%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">已明显下滑，为\u003C\u002Fspan>2025\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月以来最低。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">热度降温：不再是最大风险，亦不再是最拥挤交易\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">相关资产在本次调查中的存在感大幅消退。在\u003C\u002Fspan>\"AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">股票是否处于泡沫\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的问题上，\u003C\u002Fspan>51%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者认为并不存在泡沫，\u003C\u002Fspan>38%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">认为是泡沫。对\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">超大规模资本开支的担忧也有所缓解——认为企业过度投资的受访者比例从上月创历史新高的净\u003C\u002Fspan>33%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">降至净\u003C\u002Fspan>22%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在对\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">影响的预期上，受访者认为\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在未来\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个月最大的作用将体现于通过提升生产效率推动企业盈利扩张（\u003C\u002Fspan>27%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">），其次是\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">基础设施建设带来的大宗商品通胀效应（\u003C\u002Fspan>26%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">），另有\u003C\u002Fspan>22%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">认为\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">将通过推高失业率带来劳动力市场的通缩压力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">从拥挤交易的角度来看，\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">做多\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u002FMagnificent 7\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的光环已基本褪去——仅\u003C\u002Fspan>9%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者认为\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">做多\u003C\u002Fspan>Magnificent 7\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">是当前最拥挤的交易，较去年\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月的峰值\u003C\u002Fspan>54%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">大幅缩水。当前最拥挤交易的桂冠由\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">做多黄金\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">和\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">做多全球半导体\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">并列分享，各获\u003C\u002Fspan>35%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的支持率。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美股投资网获悉，值得关注的是，美银的反向交易逻辑指出，在伊朗战事缓和的情景下，仓位较轻的\u003C\u002Fspan>Magnificent 7\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、消费类股和中国股票或有望跑赢仓位仍然偏重的新兴市场、日本、半导体、银行和工业股。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">资产配置：从\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">繁荣\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">切换至\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">滞胀\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，大宗商品仓位飙升\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在资产配置层面，基金经理正在将组合从\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">繁荣\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">主线向\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">滞胀\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">主线切换。本月加仓方向集中于日本股票、医疗健康和现金，减仓方向则为可选消费、欧洲股票和银行股。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">从绝对仓位来看，受访者最超配的资产类别依次为新兴市场股票、医疗健康、股票整体和大宗商品；最低配的则为债券、可选消费和美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">大宗商品超配比例升至净\u003C\u002Fspan>34%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，为\u003C\u002Fspan>2022\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>4\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月以来最高，高于历史均值达\u003C\u002Fspan>2.1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个标准差，显示出强烈的通胀对冲需求。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在区域股票配置方面，新兴市场股票的超配比例升至净\u003C\u002Fspan>53%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，创\u003C\u002Fspan>2021\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月以来最高，高于历史均值\u003C\u002Fspan>1.6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个标准差；日本股票则从上月净低配\u003C\u002Fspan>1%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">迅速转为净超配\u003C\u002Fspan>14%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">与之形成鲜明对比的是，美国股票仍处于净低配\u003C\u002Fspan>17%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的状态，可选消费类股更遭遇净低配\u003C\u002Fspan>27%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，为\u003C\u002Fspan>2022\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月以来最低。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">政治变量：民主党\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">蓝潮\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">预期升温，油价预期大幅低于现价\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在政治层面，美国\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年中期选举的预期正在发生悄然变化。\u003C\u002Fspan>54%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者预计选举结果为\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">民主党控制众议院、共和党控制参议院\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">；但预期民主党全面横扫（同时控制众参两院）的比例已从两个月前的\u003C\u002Fspan>11%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">升至\u003C\u002Fspan>28%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，政治风险的市场定价正在悄然调整。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">黄金方面，随着金价持续上涨，净\u003C\u002Fspan>38%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者认为黄金估值已偏高，较上月的\u003C\u002Fspan>31%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">进一步上升，但\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">做多黄金\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">依然是最拥挤交易的并列第一，显示尽管估值压力渐增，投资者的避险需求和通胀对冲诉求仍在支撑金价。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元方面，净\u003C\u002Fspan>24%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者低配美元，较上月的\u003C\u002Fspan>28%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">略有收窄，净\u003C\u002Fspan>46%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">认为美元估值偏高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">对于大宗商品市场，基金经理的油价预判与当前市价存在显著落差。调查显示，仅\u003C\u002Fspan>11%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的受访者预计布伦特原油年底价格将超过每桶\u003C\u002Fspan>90\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元（调查期间布伦特油价约为每桶\u003C\u002Fspan>102\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元），加权平均预期价格为每桶\u003C\u002Fspan>76\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元，隐含约\u003C\u002Fspan>26%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的下行空间，折射出市场对地缘政治溢价难以持续的普遍判断。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSPY\u002FSPY.jpg","2026-03-17T15:52:25","2026.03.17","2026\u002F03\u002F17",46685,[22],"SPY","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":68,"summaryHtml":73,"aboutTitle":74,"aboutHtml":75,"copyrightHtml":76},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":60,"url":61},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":63,"url":64},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":66,"url":67},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[69,70,71,72],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]