[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioafe91b75":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioafe91b75","中信建投：短期风险偏好改善-继续提示美股科技的配置机会","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioafe91b75","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">美股投资网获悉，中信建投发布研报称，美伊冲突持续，3月大类资产普遍调整。随着冲突第一波高潮过去，进入谈判期+脱敏期，短期可交易反弹。但不宜过度乐观，市场较难重现去年关税后的趋势性上涨行情，且不排除仍有一跌。继续提示美股科技的配置机会。当前估值大幅压缩，科技相对大盘的估值溢价几乎消失，但EPS预期持续上修，后续财报若超预期，可能出现强劲催化。若美股出现又一波下跌，建议积极增持。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">中信建投主要观点如下\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">一、3月大类资产回顾\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">冲突爆发并持续，双方均未能在战场上占据绝对主导，霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，经济担忧升温，联储降息预期被逆转，特朗普言论反复无常对市场带来进一步干扰。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">全球资产普遍遭遇冲击，美股美债受滞胀风险打压，商品在前期极端行情后出现去杠杆迹象，仅油价(供给冲击)和美元(避险需求)获得支撑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">二、4月大类资产展望\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">1、整体走势\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">冲突第一波高潮过去，进入谈判期+脱敏期，短期可交易反弹。但不宜过度乐观，市场较难重现去年关税后的趋势性上涨行情，且不排除仍有一跌。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">(1)从市场点位看，本轮美伊冲突后，主要资产的跌幅远低于去年关税冲击，甚至不如常见的回撤案例，当前美股、美债、商品的点位均处于近半年的中性水平，市场更像是借此事件完成了年初上涨后的压力释放，进一步上行空间或有限。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">(2)基本面维度，一些核心矛盾仍有待解决。例如通胀影响多大，联储是否降息，油价能否回归冲突前(当前仍在90高位)，AI的资本开支和营收问题，私人信贷的风险，战争是否推升财政赤字，等等。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">(3)冲突以来，市场整体仍是基于特朗普TACO定价，而迫使特朗普和美国妥协的核心负反馈，来自金融市场的恶化，迫使其他国家介入调停的负反馈，来自油价的走高。但当前，美股和美债跌幅有限，油价中枢也远未到俄乌冲突后的水平，是否足够让特朗普就范，尚存疑。不排除最终谈判完成前，还需要一轮美股大跌\u002F油价大涨的帮助。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">2、机会提示\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">继续提示美股科技的配置机会。当前估值大幅压缩，科技相对大盘的估值溢价几乎消失，但EPS预期持续上修，后续财报若超预期，可能出现强劲催化。若美股出现又一波下跌，建议积极增持。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">风险提示美国通胀上行超预期，美国经济增长超预期，导致美联储货币政策继续收紧，美元大幅升值，美债利率上行，美股继续下跌，商业银行破产危机，以及新兴市场出现货币和债务危机。美国经济衰退超预期，导致金融市场出现流动性危机，联储被迫转向宽松。欧洲能源危机超预期，欧元区经济陷入深度衰退，全球市场陷入动荡，外需萎缩，政策面临两难。全球地缘风险加剧，中美关系恶化超预期，大宗商品、运输出现不可控因素，逆全球化程度进一步加深，供应链持续被破坏，相关资源争夺恶化。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]