[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioaee531bf":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":29,"columnUrl":31,"subscription":32,"footer":44,"text":79},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":25,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":26,"price":26,"priceText":27,"priceBadgeText":27,"priceBadgeClass":28,"freeForMinGroupLevel":26,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioaee531bf","摩根大通：美股调整还没见底！","\u002Fdoc\u002F摩根大通美股调整还没见底_548500659","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">全球风险市场遭“血洗”后，最坏的时期是否已经过去？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">8\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">日，摩根大通分析师\u003C\u002Fspan>Thomas Salopek\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">发布研报，回顾了市场见底的历史，称目前市场并不具备一系列完整的“见底信号”，接下来的回调深度或进一步加深。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">截至当日，\u003C\u002Fspan>Salopek\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">认为当前市场尚未展现出完整的底部特征。例如，标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">指数\u003C\u002Fspan>(.SPX)\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">尚未跌破\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">日移动平均线，市场广度没有处于极端低点，看跌\u003C\u002Fspan>\u002F\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">看涨期权比率也未涨至绝对高点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">衰退担忧加速市场下跌\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; color: red;\">报告表示，当前有三个指标显示市场正在下跌：信用利差恶化、美债收益率曲线走陡和防御性板块领先上涨。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">信用利差指高收益债和国债之间的利差，反映了市场对企业未来违约风险的预期。一旦该指标走阔，意味着企业倒闭风险扩大，是经济前景恶化的一个重要信号。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">其次，衰退担忧蔓延持续提振降息预期，继而推动美债收益率曲线走陡（长债收益率走高）。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最后，以公用事业为代表的防御性板块领先上涨，往往意味着其他行业的利润下滑，表明经济放缓，存在增长风险。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">“盖棺定论”为时尚早\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">此前公布的非农数据显示，美国失业率已经飙升至\u003C\u002Fspan>4.3%\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，触发衰退指标“萨姆规则”，但摩根大通对这一说法提出了异议。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">报告指出，此次失业率的飙升是由劳动力供应增加导致的，而非由就业市场的需求疲软导致的，这实际上是就业市场在疫情期间劳动力供应冲击后逐渐恢复到正常化水平的一个表现，不能直接得出经济衰退的结论。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">此前，“萨姆规则”的提出者也表达了相同的观点，她表示考虑到如今美国就业市场发生变化，萨姆规则有所失效，并不能证明美国经济已经陷入衰退。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">技术面指标也没有完全反映见底特征。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">首先是，截至\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">日，标普尚未跌破\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">日移动均线。报告指出，一旦下破该水平，意味着美股收益率曲线将出现倒挂，发出周期结束的信号。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">其次，看跌\u003C\u002Fspan>\u002F\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">看涨期权比率（\u003C\u002Fspan>PCR\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">）尚未到达更高的水平，不足以为买入看跌期权提供支持。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">第三，“恐慌指数”（\u003C\u002Fspan> .VIX \u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">指数）尚未走出反转，意味着市场还未见底。报告认为，预计到该指数从高点向正常水平回滚大约三分之一时才可能意味着股市见底。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">最后，报告指出，市场广度越低，意味着市场形势越糟糕。而截至\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">日，纳斯达克指数的市场广度指标为\u003C\u002Fspan>34%\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，没有达到摩根大通\u003C\u002Fspan>20%\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的标准。并且，猛烈的抛售潮往往会导致\u003C\u002Fspan>60%\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">以上的股票跌至短期低点，目前市场也还尚未到达这一水平。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">此外，报告指出，\u003C\u002Fspan>AAII\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">（美国散户投资者协会）情绪指数也是一个值得关注的信号。该指数是周度数据，最近的下个观察时点为为\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan lang=\"ZH-CN\" style=\"font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">日。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002FUploadercqgseawin3c_2024_08_07_09_34_40.jpg","2024-08-07T16:33:40.607","2024.08.07","2024\u002F08\u002F07",35617,[22,23,24],"SPY","SPX","纳斯达克","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":30,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":25,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":26,"price":26,"priceText":27,"priceBadgeText":27,"priceBadgeClass":28,"freeForMinGroupLevel":26,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22,23,24],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":33,"services":34,"recentDocuments":43},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[35,39],{"productId":36,"serviceName":37,"priceText":38},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":40,"serviceName":41,"priceText":42},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":45,"images":70,"summaryHtml":75,"aboutTitle":76,"aboutHtml":77,"copyrightHtml":78},[46,49,52,55,58,61,64,67],{"label":47,"url":48},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":50,"url":51},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":53,"url":54},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":56,"url":57},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":59,"url":60},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":62,"url":63},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":65,"url":66},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":68,"url":69},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[71,72,73,74],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":80,"search":81,"searchPlaceholder":81,"hotContent":82,"draft":83,"noData":84,"searchNoData":85,"edit":86,"editVideo":87,"courseContent":88,"more":89,"buyNow":90,"subscribeNow":91,"encoding":92,"paidContent":93},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]