[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioaa1e5526":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioaa1e5526","高盛警告，CTA（商品交易顾问）策略基金已被迫触发净卖出","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioaa1e5526","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">高盛交易通道最新报告警告称，受近期市场剧烈波动影响，\u003C\u002Fspan>CTA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">（商品交易顾问）策略基金已被迫触发风控机制。未来一周至一个月内，无论市场行情如何演绎，\u003C\u002Fspan>CTA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">都将成为股票的净卖方。高盛特别指出，预计未来一周的抛售规模将创下其有记录以来的历史极值，这意味着算法交易盘将成为市场持续失血的主要源头。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">与此同时，摩根大通仓位情报团队分析表示，虽然近期市场经历了剧烈震荡，但并未出现彻底的\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">清洗式\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">去杠杆——即投资者在恐慌中不计成本抛售、仓位降至极端低配的局面。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">报告称，数据显示当前投资者整体仓位仅回落至中性水平，远未达到历史出清点位。这一结构性隐患意味着，市场缺乏足够的\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">弹药\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">来承接后续可能出现的抛压。摩根大通因此判断，近期的反弹更多是基于空头回补和情绪修复，而非新一轮配置周期的开启。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">分析人士认为，随着被动型系统交易者（如\u003C\u002Fspan>CTA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">）成为纯粹的卖出力量，而主动管理型投资者的仓位调整尚未完成，市场在短期企稳后仍面临二次探底的压力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; color: blue;\">高盛：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\">CTA\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; color: blue;\">在所有情景下均为卖出方\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">高盛交易台的最新模型发出多重警示信号，市场正面临系统性抛压、对冲机制失效与流动性枯竭的三重压力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">首先，\u003C\u002Fspan>CTA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">抛压创纪录，关键点位一触即发。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">高盛条件性\u003C\u002Fspan>CTA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">流量模型显示，无论市场涨跌，系统性基金在未来一周至一个月内都将持续净卖出股票。高盛特别强调，当前的估算抛售规模“位列有记录以来最大之列”。一旦标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">指数收盘跌破中期枢轴支撑，将触发系统性策略的新一轮、更猛烈的抛售潮。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">其次，做市商成波动推手，负\u003C\u002Fspan>Gamma\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">放大涨跌。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">更令人担忧的是，做市商的\u003C\u002Fspan>Gamma\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">敞口已降至今年以来最负水平。这意味着做市商的对冲行为不仅无法平抑波动，反而会成为价格的放大器——无论市场上涨还是下跌，负\u003C\u002Fspan>Gamma\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">环境预计将持续，市场进入高波动区间的概率显著上升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">再者，流动性逼近历史低位，市场信心濒临冰点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">流动性层面同样拉响警报。\u003C\u002Fspan>E-mini\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">期货合约的盘口深度已跌至“解放日”暴跌前后的低位水平。同时，高盛波动率恐慌指数接近历史极值，风险偏好指标也回落至“解放日”时期水平，显示市场参与者普遍缺乏方向性判断的信心。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; color: blue; font-size: large;\">摩根大通：仓位未出清，反弹空间有限\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">摩根大通仓位情报团队的最新研判与高盛形成呼应。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">一方面，技术性反弹可期，但难改结构困局。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">该团队指出，过去四周的仓位累计下降已触发其战术仓位监测模型的“吸引力”信号，未来两至四周存在技术性反弹的可能。然而，这一短期信号难掩深层隐忧——当前市场并未出现极端去风险行为，整体仓位仅回落至中性水平，这与市场自伊朗局势爆发以来基本原地踏步的走势相互印证。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">另一方面，资金流向揭示脆弱性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">细节数据进一步动摇了反弹基础：对冲基金在本周初的买入行为已于周三至周四转为卖出；散户资金流向在单一股票层面也从周一的净买入转为中性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">与此同时，去杠杆规模有限（低于\u003C\u002Fspan>2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个标准差），美国市场对冲基金换手率处于正常水平，近期\u003C\u002Fspan>ETF\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">对冲需求亦未出现持续性攀升。摩根大通总结称，整体“压力”信号仍属有限，市场缺乏彻底出清后的反弹动能。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">值得警惕的是，欧洲市场出现明显分化。摩根大通数据显示，过去一周欧洲对冲基金换手率飙升至\u003C\u002Fspan>+2.4\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个标准差（亚太为\u003C\u002Fspan>+1.7\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，北美仅为\u003C\u002Fspan>+0.6\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">）。该机构指出，上一次出现如此显著的地区分化，分别是\u003C\u002Fspan>2023\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月美国区域银行危机爆发后，以及\u003C\u002Fspan>2022\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年初俄乌冲突开始之际。与此同时，欧洲净卖出力度最强（\u003C\u002Fspan>-2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个标准差），欧洲波动率指数\u003C\u002Fspan>V2X\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">相对\u003C\u002Fspan>VIX\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的溢价处于近五年\u003C\u002Fspan>95%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">分位水平。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">在上述背景下，摩根大通市场情报团队已转为战术性看空立场，预计标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">可能自近期高点下跌最多\u003C\u002Fspan>10%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，目标低点约为\u003C\u002Fspan>6270\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">点。该团队列举的主要风险因素包括：中东局势的持续不确定性、仓位尚未经历充分出清，以及系统性卖压尚未完全释放。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">综合高盛与摩根大通的研判，当前市场面临的核心矛盾在于：地缘政治层面的潜在缓和预期，与技术面、仓位面的结构性压力并存。在\u003C\u002Fspan>CTA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">全面转向做空、\u003C\u002Fspan>Gamma\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">环境持续为负、流动性深度不足的多重约束下，任何方向的价格波动都可能被放大，投资者需对短期内的高波动环境保持高度警惕。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSPY\u002FSPY.jpg","2026-03-10T18:55:29","2026.03.10","2026\u002F03\u002F10",52059,[22],"SPY","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca 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href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":68,"summaryHtml":73,"aboutTitle":74,"aboutHtml":75,"copyrightHtml":76},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":60,"url":61},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":63,"url":64},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":66,"url":67},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[69,70,71,72],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]