[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioa06dd9c1":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":28,"columnUrl":30,"subscription":31,"footer":43,"text":78},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioa06dd9c1","美联储议息会议：暂停降息，预计下半年降息两次","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioa06dd9c1","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>美东时间6月18日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间依然维持在4.25%至4.5%。至此，FOMC已连续四次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上任以来，联储一直按兵不动。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>投资者完全预料到了本次美联储继续暂停降息。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周保持利率不变的概率达99.9%，7月下次会议也不降息的概率超过85%，预计9月至少降息25个基点的概率略超63%。上周公布的美国5月CPI和PPI数据均显示通胀放缓，令美联储今年内降息两次的预期升温。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>本次美联储的决议相比上次大致保持不变，但提出经济前景的不确定性有所减弱。反映美联储官员对利率前景预期水平的点阵图显示，联储对今年降息的前景相比上次偏鹰派，因为预计今年不降息的官员增加。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>渣打银行的G10外汇研究全球主管Steve Englander评论称，本次FOMC会议的目标是，扩大可能的美联储政策应对范围，同时不做出任何行动承诺。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>经济前景不确定性已减弱、仍偏高删除失业和通胀均上升风险增加\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>本次美联储的决议声明几乎沿用了5月的上次FOMC会后声明内容。主要有三处变动。其中一大变动是有关经济前景不确定性的说辞。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>上次声明称，“经济前景有关的不确定性进一步增加”，较上上次增加了“进一步”一词。而本次的声明改称：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>“经济前景有关的不确定性已经减弱，但仍然偏高。”\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>紧接着上面调整的这句话，本次声明再次重申，FOMC委员会专注于，在实现充分就业和价格稳定的双重使命上，所面临的两方面风险，然后作出了第二大变动。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>上次声明新增了半句话，称FOMC“判定，失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加。”本次删除了有关失业和通胀均上升风险增加的这半句话。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>第三处变动是在评价失业方面。上次声明称，美国的失业率“近几个月已经企稳于低位”，本次声明删掉了这个说辞，简单称为失业率“仍低”。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>重申净出口波动影响数据但经济继续稳健扩张、继续缩表\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>在点评经济时，和上次声明一样，本次声明也称：“虽然净出口波动已影响数据，但最近的指标显示经济活动继续稳健扩张。”\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>本次声明继续重申，美联储将继续减少其持有的美国国债、机构债和机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>从今年4月开始，美联储进一步放慢缩减资产负债表（缩表）这一量化紧缩（QT）行动的步伐。具体做法是，将美国国债的每月赎回上限从250亿美元下调至50亿美元，同时保持对机构债务和机构MBS每月350亿美元的赎回上限不变。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>此后，美联储连续两次会议都未再改动缩表指引，显示缩表继续按以上步伐进行。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>本次声明显示，和上次会议一样，全体FOMC的投票委员都支持本次会议的决议。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>今年利率预测中位值不变但预计不降息者增三人\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>本周三会后公布的美联储官员利率预测中位值显示，联储官员本次对今年的利率展望保持不变，明后两年均上调。这意味着，相比今年3月美联储公布的利率预测，本次预测的明后两年降息力度低于上次。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>具体预测的中位值如下：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>2025年底的联邦基金利率为3.9%，持平3月预期。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>2026年底的联邦基金利率为3.6%，3月预期3.4%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>2027年底联邦基金利率为3.4%，3月预期3.1%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>更长期的联邦基金利率为3.0%，持平3月预期。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>以此利率中位值计算，美联储官员目前预计，今年会有两次25个基点的降息，和3月的预测完全相同。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cimg style=\"display: block; 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