[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio9b75a8be":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio9b75a8be","博通AI财报预测，期权策略，市场关注这几点","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio9b75a8be","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">3\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月\u003C\u002Fspan>4\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">日美股盘后，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">博通\u003C\u002Fspan> (AVGO) \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">将公布\u003C\u002Fspan>FY2026\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">财年\u003C\u002Fspan>Q1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">业绩，作为市值仅次于英伟达的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">芯片设计公司，市场翘首以盼这份财报带来的增量信息。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">紧接着上周英伟达财报后的股价戏剧性表现，博通这次财报的气氛有点像压力测试：一边是\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">基建继续砸钱，另一边是市场开始追问\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">回报率，当前市场对\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">半导体链条的估值更敏感、波动更大。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">市场在等什么：指引明确，关注指引及利润率表述\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">从上季度的指引来看，博通预计\u003C\u002Fspan>Q1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">营收约\u003C\u002Fspan>191\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元；调整后\u003C\u002Fspan>EBITDA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">率目标\u003C\u002Fspan>67%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">；\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">半导体收入预计同比翻倍至\u003C\u002Fspan>82\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元，主要来自定制\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">加速器（\u003C\u002Fspan>ASIC\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">）和以太网\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">交换芯片。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">当前市场的一致预期基本贴着公司指引走，数据显示：本季营收约\u003C\u002Fspan>191.13\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元，\u003C\u002Fspan>EPS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">约为\u003C\u002Fspan>1.397\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">因此，财报夜的关键不在增不增长，而在增长的质量：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">–\u003C\u002Fspan> 82\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">收入是否兑现，以及在手订单的增长程度；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">–\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">毛利率是否继续被\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">结构性拉低；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">–\u003C\u002Fspan> AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">芯片的客户是否拓展。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">股价复盘：震荡下行、增长担忧显现\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">上季度财报，博通交出的数字并不难看，指引也偏乐观，但电话会上“毛利率要下滑”的表态，直接把市场情绪浇冷。公司当时预计，由于\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">相关收入占比抬升，综合毛利率将出现约\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个基点的环比下行。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">进入\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年，博通的股价持续震荡，逐渐走低，主要是源于当前市场对于\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">领域巨额资本开支能否延续的担忧在持续加强。对比股价走势，不难发现在\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">总龙头的核心英伟达股价回落的同时，博通往往也出现明显下跌，资金更像在表达对整个\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">芯片板块的忧虑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这也是过去两个月博通股价走不出趋势的核心背景：市场在等更确定的“盈利质量答案”。这段时间市场的态度很清晰：\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">故事依然成立，订单与产品节奏也在推进；股价真正卡住的地方，是利润率下行的边界、以及定制芯片客户集中度带来的预期弹性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cstrong>AI\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">主线怎么验，关注客户能否扩圈\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">有关本季度的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">半导体相关业务指标，此前的业绩会管理层已经明确说明：\u003C\u002Fspan>Q1 AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">半导体收入预计为\u003C\u002Fspan>82\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元。但真正决定博通估值能不能再抬一档的，是管理层能否回答两个更难的问题：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">第一，定制芯片能不能从“少数大客户”走向“更多客户、更多代际”。上季度财报提到，博通披露未来\u003C\u002Fspan>18\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个月的订单积压里，\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">相关订单规模高达\u003C\u002Fspan>730\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元，但集中在少数大客户身上；客户越集中，市场越担心任何一家放缓就会带来预期落差。本季度能否披露相关产品进入更多更广泛的大客户，以及在手订单的增量将是市场核心关注点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">第二，技术路线能不能带来新的收入曲线。近期博通官方披露预计到\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年将销售至少\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万颗基于其\u003C\u002Fspan>3D\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">堆叠技术的芯片，首个客户是富士通，工程样片在测，商业化生产预计今年推进。公司还提示，这可能对应数十亿美元级的新收入池。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这条线对\u003C\u002Fspan>Q1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">财报的意义不在当季兑现，而在管理层如何给出明确指引：客户导入节奏、量产节点、以及和\u003C\u002Fspan>TSMC\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">先进制程\u003C\u002Fspan>\u002F\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">封装的协同路径。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">期权攻略：本次财报更像“波动率事件”，期权怎么下手更像在做交易\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">先看定价绩前期权市场的定价，截至\u003C\u002Fspan>2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月\u003C\u002Fspan>27\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">日周五美股收盘，期权市场定价隐含预计绩后波动在约\u003C\u002Fspan>9%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">结合前几个季度业绩后的波动来看，博通财报发布后的股价涨跌不算小，且多数超过市场预期的波动，本次叠加\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">半导体领域的整体承压，博通能够突出重围？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">期权策略方面，更可执行的几种思路：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">偏多但不想为高\u003C\u002Fspan>IV\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">买单：看涨价差（\u003C\u002Fspan>Bull Call Spread\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">），用结构换成本，押注在兑现\u003C\u002Fspan>82\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">亿美元\u003C\u002Fspan>+\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">指引乐观\u003C\u002Fspan>+\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">毛利率顶住的组合。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">偏空：看跌价差（\u003C\u002Fspan>Bear Put Spread\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">），核心押注毛利率持续下滑、\u003C\u002Fspan>Q2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">指引偏保守。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">持有正股、想把财报周当收取较高权利的窗口：备兑开仓（\u003C\u002Fspan>Covered Call\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">），前提是你接受财报后暴涨会被封顶。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">总的来看，若营收、\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">半导体收入、利润率这三条都稳，且指引不差，市场更容易把博通当成\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">硬件链里确定性更强的那一类资产。但只要其中一条明显走弱，在当前市场风险偏好走低、\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">泡沫担忧加剧的环境下，绩后股价或许会承受压力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FA\u002FAVGO\u002FAVGO.jpg","2026-03-03T18:40:46","2026.03.03","2026\u002F03\u002F03",45173,[22],"AVGO","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" 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href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":68,"summaryHtml":73,"aboutTitle":74,"aboutHtml":75,"copyrightHtml":76},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":60,"url":61},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":63,"url":64},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":66,"url":67},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[69,70,71,72],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]