[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio93b0d0c7":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio93b0d0c7","苹果AI功能未能引爆换机潮-瑞银调研显示用户升级意愿连续下降","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio93b0d0c7","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">苹果人工智能功能(Apple Intelligence)未能成为华尔街预期中的换机超级周期催化剂，这一叙事正持续受挫。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">瑞银(UBS)最新调查显示，表示会因Apple Intelligence功能而提前换机的受访者比例较半年前下降约500个基点至约24%，而表示该功能对购机决策\"没有影响\"的比例则上升约300个基点至约31%。这意味着苹果AI功能对消费者换机行为的实际拉动力正在减弱，而非增强。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">尽管如此，调查中仍存在若干积极信号美国市场12个月内iPhone购买意向同比上升约300个基点至约20%，英国和德国市场涨幅更为显著；与此同时，消费者对苹果品牌折叠屏手机的兴趣保持相对强劲，被视为潜在的需求支撑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">瑞银维持苹果(AAPL)12个月目标价296美元不变，苹果股价目前已重返300美元上方。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">Apple Intelligence对换机决策影响持续走弱\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">瑞银分析师David Vogt日前援引其Evidence Lab最新调查结果指出，Apple Intelligence尚未点燃市场期待已久的iPhone换机超级周期。该调查覆盖五大主要市场逾7500名智能手机用户。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">结果显示，表示会因Apple Intelligence功能而提前升级设备的受访者占比约为24%，较半年前下降约500个基点；而表示该功能对购机决策无影响的受访者占比升至约31%，较半年前上升约300个基点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">这一数据与华尔街此前的预期形成明显落差。此前，多位分析师将苹果AI功能定位为驱动新一轮iPhone换机超级周期的核心动力，并以此支撑对苹果硬件销量的乐观预测。目前来看，这一逻辑尚未在消费者行为层面得到验证。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">在整体换机意愿疲软的背景下，不同市场之间呈现出明显分化。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">调查显示，美国市场12个月内iPhone购买意向同比上升约300个基点至约20%，英国和德国市场表现更为亮眼，分别上升约600个基点和400个基点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">中国市场12个月购买意向同比下降约100个基点至约15%，叠加潜在涨价压力，被该行分析师David Vogt列为制约苹果估值进一步扩张的主要因素之一。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">折叠屏iPhone成潜在需求亮点\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">在Apple Intelligence拉动力不及预期的情况下，即将推出的折叠屏iPhone被视为另一潜在需求驱动力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">调查显示，尽管整体折叠屏手机市场的\"净兴趣度\"较半年前下降约600个基点至负8%，但消费者对苹果品牌折叠屏产品的偏好溢价显著扩大——苹果折叠屏相对于普通折叠屏手机的\"净兴趣\"领先幅度较半年前扩大约600个基点至约48%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">David Vogt表示，市场对苹果折叠屏产品的情绪方向性积极，有助于支撑iPhone需求，尤其是在苹果全球开发者大会(WWDC26)上发布的AI新功能预计不会成为实质性需求驱动力的背景下。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">他预计，折叠屏iPhone初期最多可贡献约500万台销量，相当于其现有预测的约2%上行空间。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">在销量预测方面，David Vogt将苹果2026财年iPhone出货量预估维持在2.616亿部，同比增长约15.7%，主要受益于iPhone 17需求强劲以及预期涨价前的部分需求提前释放。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">瑞银维持苹果12个月目标价296美元，基于其2027日历年每股盈利预测9.86美元的30倍市盈率估值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">David Vogt指出，当前估值已在一定程度上反映了近期iPhone需求改善预期及部分AI期权价值，但产品路线图不确定性以及潜在涨价风险等，制约了估值倍数的进一步扩张。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">本文转载自“美股投资网”，作者董静；美股投资网财经编辑徐文强。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 每天处理千万级股票数据：捕捉期权大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准交易信号第一时间发到您手机APP！\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FA\u002FAAPL\u002FAAPL.jpg","2026-07-08T22:30:03","2026.07.08","2026\u002F07\u002F08",39632,[22],"AAPL","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]