[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio91177876":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":28,"columnUrl":30,"subscription":31,"footer":43,"text":78},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio91177876","美联储降息愈发逼近！美股将进入“真正的牛市”？","\u002Fdoc\u002F美联储降息愈发逼近美股将进入真正的牛市_796953357","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>自2022年10月美股进入牛市以来，美股主要依靠人工智能和少数大型科技股的优异表现带动大盘上涨。然而，这种集中上涨的模式引发了投资者对市场涨幅不够广泛的担忧，认为这种局面可能会影响市场的持续反弹。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>投资者在上周四好于预期的通胀数据前提下，快速反应出美联储9月降息的可能，\u003Cstrong>而降息就意味着利好中小型的美国企业的未来发展，导致美国科技七大巨头被纷纷抛售，腾出资金买入中小型的股。小型股的罗素2000指数的ETF，代号 IWM 上涨超过7%，并在当前牛市中首次突破2022年的高点\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>根据美股大数据 金融AI终端 StockWe.com 追踪，IWM 持续多天期权放量\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cimg style=\"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202407-stk\u002F1233902315mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>行业扩散：房地产和金融等利率敏感行业表现优异。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>等权重指数优于市值加权指数：表明市场breadth（广度）正在改善\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>交易员现在100%确定美联储将在9月降息。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>根据芝商所的美联储观察工具显示，美联储9月将降息25个基点，即联邦基金利率将从目前的5.25%-5.5%降至5%-5.25%的概率为93.3%。 \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"1080,646\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20240717\u002Fv2_3ec57540cd76476aa4a5640dcb9bdafd@5576020_oswg86867oswg1080oswg646_img_000\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>该工具还显示，交易员预计美联储9月降息50个基点概率为6.7%，这可能反映了部分交易员认为美联储将在7月底的会议上降息，并在9月再次降息。 \u003Cstrong>综合来看，交易员对于美联储将于9月降息概率达到100%。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>驱动因素分析\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>通胀数据改善：好于预期的通胀数据引发了市场对美联储可能提前降息的预期。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>盈利前景改善：除\"七大巨头\"外的其他股票预计将实现自2022年以来的首次同比盈利增长。这为广泛反弹提供了基本面支持。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>利率预期变化：市场预期美联储9月降息的可能性超过95%，这推动了对利率敏感行业的表现。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>潜在风险和不确定性\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>持续性问题：过去也曾出现类似的轮动迹象，但未能持续。本次轮动能否长期维持仍存疑问。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>经济数据依赖：市场仍高度关注每一条经济数据，这可能导致短期波动。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>降息预期的准确性：市场对美联储降息的预期可能过于乐观，如果实际政策与预期不符，可能引发市场调整。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>投资策略启示\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>当前美股市场正处于一个潜在的转折点。虽然有迹象表明市场正向更广泛、更可持续的牛市发展，但仍需谨慎对待。 \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>这种轮动如果持续，可能预示着美股进入一个新的、更具包容性的上涨阶段，但也可能带来更缓慢的指数上涨速度和更高的波动性。 \u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202407-stk\u002FUploaderay4l1odnyu0_2024_07_16_17_24_33.jpeg","2024-07-17T00:23:53.32","2024.07.17","2024\u002F07\u002F17",57844,[22,23],"美联储降息","中小型股","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":29,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22,23],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":32,"services":33,"recentDocuments":42},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[34,38],{"productId":35,"serviceName":36,"priceText":37},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":39,"serviceName":40,"priceText":41},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":44,"images":69,"summaryHtml":74,"aboutTitle":75,"aboutHtml":76,"copyrightHtml":77},[45,48,51,54,57,60,63,66],{"label":46,"url":47},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":49,"url":50},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":52,"url":53},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":55,"url":56},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":58,"url":59},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":61,"url":62},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":64,"url":65},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":67,"url":68},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[70,71,72,73],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":79,"search":80,"searchPlaceholder":80,"hotContent":81,"draft":82,"noData":83,"searchNoData":84,"edit":85,"editVideo":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]