[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio903e3c06":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":28,"columnUrl":30,"subscription":31,"footer":43,"text":78},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio903e3c06","到底是谁在操纵特朗普的大选胜率？！","\u002Fdoc\u002F到底是谁在操纵特朗普的大选胜率_197212727","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>美股周二尾盘涨跌不一，纳指小幅上扬。市场继续关注美股财报、美联储降息前景与正在迫近的美国大选选情。美债收益率大涨令市场情绪压抑。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>特朗普赢面越来越大，\u003C\u002Fstrong>因为根据几个主流的押住平台，predictit、Kalshi、Polymarket 都出现同一个趋势\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"671,513\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_a4c785a9462649bda4af3fd35a9b166b@5576020_oswg76612oswg671oswg513_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>注：粗粉红线为押注市场平均胜率，蓝线为基于民调的胜率，浅粉红线为Polymarket胜率\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>就是押特朗普获胜的人超60%，这些数据成为 28 万亿美元的有价美国国债市场以及外汇市场设定近期价格信号方面发挥了重要作用：这是因为国债和墨西哥比索似乎都在为特朗普赢得美国总统大选的概率上升进行定价，正如 Polymarket 所显示的那样，而忽略了传统民调，因为传统民调大多显示哈里斯仍处于领先地位。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"1004,526\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_6bd5f5f59ac8483680ff530417cc7934@5576020_oswg62905oswg1004oswg526_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>Polymarket网站截图\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"1080,509\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_24eaacc6677b45a6bcaba75a5c1d4b8a@5576020_oswg105449oswg1080oswg509_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>Kalshi网站截图\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"680,572\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_cdee9eeb871045f2a947ca5d555659df@5576020_oswg29610oswg680oswg572_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>Predictit网站截图\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>值得注意的是，预测平台Polymarket由于监管原因，该平台只对美国以外的交易者开放。而根据业内对Polymarket资金活动的追踪器显示，仅仅一小群的匿名交易员的亿元级大笔押注，就在这一知名预测市场上戏剧性推高了特朗普今年赢得美国总统大选的预期几率。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>在这其中，四个匿名账户的“豪赌”尤为引人注目。\u003Cstrong>随着本周一其中一个账户加大了押注规模，一旦特朗普获胜，这四个账户总计所能获得的潜在赔付金额，已从上周五的3000万美元增加到了周一上午的近4300万美元（约合3亿人民币）\u003C\u002Fstrong>。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>这引起了社交媒体用户和预测市场专家的质疑：\u003Cstrong>究竟是大额投注左右了市场，还是上述预测市场其实是一个比民调数字更好的领先指标？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"888,556\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_a026ce28d4184c30abe4a81d7c6853aa@5576020_oswg40736oswg888oswg556_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>特朗普社交媒体股DJT今天继续大涨10%，相关的特朗普技术小盘股 PHUN 爆涨47%\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"1080,1188\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_462be057fdd34ce59123ae1a8ccfa589@5576020_oswg193225oswg1080oswg1188_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"1080,1059\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_d375954487e745fea032be0200768b59@5576020_oswg196559oswg1080oswg1059_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>我们VIP社群昨天就进场 DJT  和 PHUN，截图曝光\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"750,765\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_306048f3f3254dad96a067ecc0bc67b2@5576020_oswg105618oswg750oswg765_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>其实早在10月10日，我们通过美股大数据机构期权大单监测到，华尔街一名交易员，买入价值近947万美元的看涨期权，到期日是大选后的11月15日，当时该期权6.4美元，现在已经涨到14.4美元，涨1倍多。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"1080,487\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_e52bc5d69ddf471a9a406e8c69fc075f@5576020_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>那么持有DJT处在哪些风险？\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>特朗普随时都可能出现再度被袭击的风险\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>特朗普今年78岁了，更容易出现突发性的疾病比如中风\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>马斯克已经给特朗普的推特账户解封了，DJT并不是特朗普唯一的发推选择\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>华尔街全面押注“特朗普获胜”\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>摩根大通在17日发布的研报中表示，对冲基金资金流表现出对共和党主题的强烈偏好，共和党获胜者在过去几周内被买入，持仓接近2年高点，而民主党获胜者被抛售，持仓处于多年低点。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>可再生能源（民主党获胜的明显代表）在过去几周被大量抛售，头寸再次变得更加看跌。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"1024,717\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_2ddf43f3e296406bb2ce9e5d1b92c505@5576020_oswg616665oswg1024oswg717_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Ch2> \u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Ch2>\u003Cstrong>高盛：共和党胜利篮子创下历史新高\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fh2>\n\u003Cp>共和党胜选情景已成为高盛在选举前的首选交易之一。数据显示，高盛的共和党胜利篮子创下历史新高，而民主党胜利篮子又回到了拜登的水平。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\" data-img-size-val=\"1024,587\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_fa6d04c7b0ff417a89c7668632a0bc66@5576020_oswg670763oswg1024oswg587_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>高盛 FICC 副总裁 Vincent Mistretta在其最新研报中表示：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cblockquote>\n\u003Cp>“市场定位倾向于特朗普获胜。在最近市场特朗普获胜的赔率上升之前，情况就已经如此。”\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\n\u003Cp>瑞银的共和党获胜篮子也已经击败民主党获胜篮子，连续14天收高。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>瑞银交易员Michael Romano在一份报告中写道：\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cblockquote>\n\u003Cp>“瑞银的共和党vs.民主党选举对冲交易本月迄今已上涨15%，几乎呈现直线上升，达到新高，这表明市场已大体上消化了特朗普胜选的预期。”\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fimg.36krcdn.com\u002Fhsossms\u002F20241023\u002Fv2_67b10e80da7f4eb9951bca96faacc657@5576020_oswg249705oswg1024oswg576_img_000?x-oss-process=image\u002Fformat,jpg\u002Finterlace,1\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>摩根大通与高盛对美股未来十年的前景持不同观点。\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>摩根大通认为大型公司能提高利润率，加上科技和AI的进步，未来前景乐观，其报告预测未来10至15年美国大型股年化回报率为6.7%。同时，传统的60\u002F40股票债券投资组合年回报率预计为6.4%，仍高于长期平均水平。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>相比之下，高盛警告称，未来十年标普500的年回报率仅略高于3%，反映出过去十年大涨时代的结束。然而，摩根大通也承认，全球股票的预期年化回报率为7.1%，非美国市场和新兴市场的回报率更高。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>在固定收益方面，摩根大通预计美国中期和长期国债的年化回报率分别为3.8%和5.2%。另类资产如私募股权的回报率预测为9.9%，房地产和基础设施也显示出良好前景。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>总体来看，尽管摩根大通的预测较为乐观，但仍低于历史平均水平，反映出华尔街面临的不确定性。分析人士强调，主动管理和多元化投资组合的价值在于抵御市场波动并抓住增长机会。摩根大通认为，AI技术将推动企业收入和利润增长，未来的经济增长前景依然乐观。\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202410-stk\u002FUploaderlkvbijc32vq_2024_10_22_17_40_00.jpeg","2024-10-23T00:31:08.323","2024.10.23","2024\u002F10\u002F23",49731,[22,23],"DJT","PHUN","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":29,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22,23],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":32,"services":33,"recentDocuments":42},"\u003Cfigure 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href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[34,38],{"productId":35,"serviceName":36,"priceText":37},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":39,"serviceName":40,"priceText":41},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":44,"images":69,"summaryHtml":74,"aboutTitle":75,"aboutHtml":76,"copyrightHtml":77},[45,48,51,54,57,60,63,66],{"label":46,"url":47},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":49,"url":50},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":52,"url":53},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":55,"url":56},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":58,"url":59},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":61,"url":62},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":64,"url":65},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":67,"url":68},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[70,71,72,73],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":79,"search":80,"searchPlaceholder":80,"hotContent":81,"draft":82,"noData":83,"searchNoData":84,"edit":85,"editVideo":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]