[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio8e78c180":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":28,"columnUrl":30,"subscription":31,"footer":43,"text":78},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio8e78c180","两家市值达4万亿美元的公司——微软与英伟达（NVDA）对比分析","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio8e78c180","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>AI革命浪潮下的微软 (MSFT)与英伟达 (NVDA)正双双冲向4万亿美元市值的巅峰，有望组成股票市场上最顶级的俱乐部。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>4万亿以后，5万亿，甚至10万亿或许也能在不远的未来见到。M7之外，诸如OpenAI、anthropic等AI明星也可能随着将来的IPO随时加入。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>英伟达：更高的AI敞口，单季净利有望超越微软\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>英伟达 (NVDA) 的价值飙升，源于其在AI价值链中的独特地位。作为AI“军备竞赛”的“卖铲人”，这使得英伟达的增长故事简单而直接。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>过去五年英伟达销售额暴增近10倍（2021年单季营收50亿增长至2025年Q1的440亿），净利以更大的斜率增长至单季220亿水平（Q1净利由于H20计提影响约50亿），直逼微软的250亿。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>由于英伟达至少近几个季度营收增速依然将明显高于微软（Q2预计同比50%，后续逐季变缓），英伟达单季净利超越微软很有可能在未来几个季度内见到。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>而微软 (MSFT) 的智能云服务、生产力和业务流程(office)、个人计算(windows)三大板块中，只有智能云业务，尤其是其中的Azure云平台，最明显受益于AI拉动，在近几个季度保持了30%以上的增速。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>在其他业务的拖拽下，微软的整体营收增速只有1x%区间。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>两者的隐忧和对策\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>估值层面，两者目前动态PE十分接近，英伟达在近一两年明显更高增速下相对微软没有享受到溢价，主要仍是市场担心或者看不清其中长期的竞争优势。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>对于训练侧的算力需求，CUDA生态下英伟达预计依然能保持相对垄断；此外目前看多模态和具身智能潜力巨大，但训练侧算力需求始终会收敛，推理侧的算力空间会越来越大。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>而在推理侧，英伟达的技术代差正在被美国超微公司 (AMD) 快速追赶，巨头也不希望被英伟达拿捏，持续投入自研ASIC，未来推理侧的市场英伟达占据的份额预计将面临AMD和博通 (AVGO) 的挤压。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>英伟达的应对手段之一，即是近期发力的云平台。如果云业务营收贡献达到一定比例，或将对估值带来比较大弹性的支持。因为相比于GPU的硬件销售模式，云业务高度可复现的营收流会有高得多的估值倍数。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>微软这边，Azure云的增长离不开Open 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API收入。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>但中长期看，OpenAI希望转变为一家标准的营利性公司，这可能导致其与既是资助者又是竞争对手的微软之间关系重构，2030年两家公司预计要重新签订新的分成及合作协议。随着OpenAI和甲骨文 (ORCL)主导的Stargate算力设施逐渐落地，OpenAI的话语权似乎也将变强。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>微软的应对一方面在于其云+AI协同，最大PaaS平台企业高粘性的生态优势；另一方面，微软自研的ASIC芯片和大模型等组织创新能力的发挥，也将是决定这家巨头未来走向的关键因素。\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202507-stk\u002FUploadermjismmvnhrj_2025_07_08_09_51_21.jpeg","2025-07-08T16:49:24.86","2025.07.08","2025\u002F07\u002F08",44691,[22,23],"MSFT","NVDA","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":29,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22,23],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":32,"services":33,"recentDocuments":42},"\u003Cfigure 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":79,"search":80,"searchPlaceholder":80,"hotContent":81,"draft":82,"noData":83,"searchNoData":84,"edit":85,"editVideo":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]