[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio30828152":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":28,"columnUrl":30,"subscription":31,"footer":43,"text":78},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio30828152","高盛重磅预测：美股“躺赢”时代结束了？未来十年回报率恐腰斩！","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio30828152","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>最近仔细研读了高盛发布的《2025-2035全球股市十年展望》。这份报告之所以重要，是因为它并未纠结于短期的涨跌，而是从资产定价（Asset Pricing）的底层逻辑出发，对过去十年“美股独大”的趋势提出了修正预警。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>不仅是结论，其拆解回报来源的方法论更值得我们参考。以下是核心观点的客观梳理：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>1. 标普回报率：回归“常态”\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>过去十年，标普500指数实现了年化15%的高回报，这在历史上属于极其罕见的“长牛” 。然而，均值回归是金融市场的铁律。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Cimg style=\"aspect-ratio:956\u002F581;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202511-stk\u002F966240042image.png\" width=\"956\" height=\"581\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cp>高盛模型预测，未来十年（2025-2035），标普500的年化名义总回报率预计将降至6.5% 。这一数值处于历史分布的后1\u002F3区间 。简单来说，投资者需要降低对美股贝塔（Beta）收益的预期，过去那种“躺赢”的高斜率增长恐难以为继。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>2. 回报归因分析：成长的动力 vs 估值的拖累\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>为什么回报率会“腰斩”？高盛将预期回报拆解为三个核心变量：\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cul>\u003Cli>盈利增长（Earnings）： 依然是正向贡献，预计年复合增长约6%，显示美股基本面依然稳健 。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>股息回报（Dividends）： 预计贡献约1.4% 。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\u003Cp>估值调整（Valuation）： 这是最大的变量。 当前美股前瞻市盈率（Forward P\u002FE）约为23倍，处于历史高位 。高盛模型假设估值倍数在未来十年会缓慢收缩，预计每年将对总回报产生约1%的负面拖累 。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Cimg style=\"aspect-ratio:817\u002F711;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202511-stk\u002F1301247675image.png\" width=\"817\" height=\"711\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003Ch2>3. 非美市场：超越美股的结构性机遇\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>当美股回报中枢下移，全球资产的相对性价比开始显现。高盛预测未来十年全球股市（MSCI ACWI）年化回报约为7.7%，优于美股 。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Cimg style=\"aspect-ratio:701\u002F574;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202511-stk\u002F1179796558image.png\" width=\"701\" height=\"574\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cp>高盛认为，美国以外的市场，无论是发达还是新兴经济体，都因各自的结构性优势和更具吸引力的估值，预计将全面跑赢美股。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Cimg style=\"aspect-ratio:1215\u002F492;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202511-stk\u002F1475482682image.png\" width=\"1215\" height=\"492\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cp>A. 亚洲与新兴市场：增长的爆发点\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>该板块拥有全球最高的预期回报，核心动力是高达9%的盈利年均增长和更低的估值起点。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>总体预测： 新兴市场（EM）本币年化总回报预计为 10.9%，亚洲（除日本）为 10.3%。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>高增长细分： 印度以 13% 的预期回报领跑全球，中国为 10.4%，韩国\u002F台湾均为 10%。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>B. 欧洲与日本：更稳健的超额回报\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>这两个发达市场也因结构性优势，在模型预测中跑赢了美股。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>日本： 预计年化回报 8.2%。驱动力主要来自持续的公司治理改革、股东回报提升以及产业结构调整。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>欧洲： 预计以美元计的年化回报为 7.5%。主要支撑点是高分红和回购（贡献约3.5%），以及欧股公司60%的收入来自欧洲以外的全球化商业模式。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>汇率因素： 如果美元结束强势周期进入长期贬值通道，非美资产将获得额外的汇率收益（预计年化贡献0.6%-3.5%不等） 。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Cimg style=\"aspect-ratio:1080\u002F645;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202511-stk\u002F1778885012image.png\" width=\"1080\" height=\"645\">\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Ch2>4. 结语\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>这份报告并非看空美股的“崩盘论”，而是一份关于预期管理的修正案。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>对于配置来说： 过去十年高度集中于美股（尤其是科技巨头）的单一策略，在未来十年可能面临夏普比率下降的风险。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>对于方向来说： 从“美股例外论”思维转向全球均衡配置。在关注美股盈利韧性的同时，适度增加新兴市场及非美发达市场的权重，以捕捉估值修复和汇率波动带来的多元化收益 。\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202511-stk\u002FUploaderxg3wqn0tsx3_2025_11_26_19_09_43.png","2025-11-27T03:07:08.763","2025.11.27","2025\u002F11\u002F27",48439,[22,23],"GS","SPX","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":29,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22,23],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":32,"services":33,"recentDocuments":42},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca 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href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[34,38],{"productId":35,"serviceName":36,"priceText":37},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":39,"serviceName":40,"priceText":41},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":44,"images":69,"summaryHtml":74,"aboutTitle":75,"aboutHtml":76,"copyrightHtml":77},[45,48,51,54,57,60,63,66],{"label":46,"url":47},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":49,"url":50},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":52,"url":53},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":55,"url":56},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":58,"url":59},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":61,"url":62},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":64,"url":65},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":67,"url":68},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[70,71,72,73],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":79,"search":80,"searchPlaceholder":80,"hotContent":81,"draft":82,"noData":83,"searchNoData":84,"edit":85,"editVideo":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]