[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio296b83c9":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":26,"columnUrl":28,"subscription":29,"footer":41,"text":76},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":22,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":23,"price":23,"priceText":24,"priceBadgeText":24,"priceBadgeClass":25,"freeForMinGroupLevel":23,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio296b83c9","美股连日下跌，未来一周或迎来 400 亿美元 CTA 砸盘？","\u002Fdoc\u002F美股连日下跌未来一周或迎来-400-亿美元-cta-砸盘_114424290","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>美股近日持续下跌，原因是随着对经济增长放缓的担忧与特朗普政府政策引发的贸易不确定性席卷市场，昔日推动美股上涨的“动量交易”正遭遇寒冬。曾经在2023-2024年领跑标普500指数的科技、通信和非必需消费品股票，如今在2025年集体垫底，而医疗保健和必需消费品等传统防御型板块则异军突起。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>Roth Capital Partners 首席市场技术分析师JC O'Hara指出，“当投资者看到防御型股票开始领涨，他们的避险情绪会愈发强烈。”\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>标普500指数周四便再次大幅下跌逾1.5%，在经历了年初的火热之后，2025年迄今这一美国基准股指反而累计下挫了0.3%，表现逊于欧洲甚至加拿大的基准指数。从周线和月线的角度来看，标普500指数本周已下跌了2.5%，月线则重挫3%，再跌1.4%就将抹去特朗普当选以来的所有涨幅。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>与此同时，对股票投资者的一连串打击还在继续。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>英伟达公司周三盘后公布的业绩和财测未能让对其寄予厚望的投资者眼前一亮，周四其股价大跌了约8%，目前已从1月6日触及的纪录收盘高位下跌了近20%，市值则跌破了3万亿美元大关。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>“英伟达的财报本质上其实不错，但与过去一段时间财报披露期的重量级表现相比，仍算小巫见大巫，”Certuity首席投资官Scott Welch表示。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>在此之前，DeepSeek 1月份推出的低成本人工智能模型已使华尔街AI概念股的涨势降温。上周末的一份分析师报告暗示微软将取消部分数据中心的租约，也引发了人们对人工智能行业产能过剩的担忧。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>而科技大盘股近来的走软，又恰逢美国经济数据表现持续不佳，以及特朗普不断释放关税威胁。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>周四公布的经济数据便再度显示，美国通胀预期、消费者信心、成屋销售和初请失业救济人数发出着令人不安的信号。虽然10年期美债收益率隔夜出现了七天来的首次上涨，但仍徘徊在年内低点附近。目前，10年期美债收益率已较1月份4.8%的峰值下跌了约50个基点。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>O'Hara表示，标普500指数原本理应欢迎美债收益率下降，但当下跌如此迅猛时，投资者的第一反应就是询问市场出了什么问题。他补充称，由于市场将债券市场的上涨解读为一种防御性举措，这也加速了投资者从风险较高的追逐趋势的交易中撤出。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>由于美国经济数据表现持续低迷，联邦基金利率期货市场定价已显示，交易员预计美联储今年将降息约60个基点，即至少进行两次降息，每次25个基点。美联储很可能在6月或7月的政策会议上恢复降息。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>在过往，散户投资者通常会蜂拥进行由动量驱动的投机交易，但现在他们也正在暂停买入并转而抛售。摩根大通的数据显示，本周一开盘后两个小时内，散户投资者就抛售了11亿美元的股票，这是自2020年3月疫情爆发以来最大的单日资金流出。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>根据美国个人投资者协会(American Association of Individual Investors)的最新调查显示，总体而言，散户投资者情绪已变得极度悲观。截至本周三的一周内，对未来六个月股价下跌的预期飙升了20个百分点以上，达到近61%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>注：红色部分为持悲观观点的占比\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>而很显然，投资者眼下面临的考验或许还远没有结束——在大摩看来，标普500指数周四大跌背后一个潜在的危险信号是，其已经跌破了触发CTA(大宗商品交易顾问)中期清盘的一条红线：5887点。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>摩根士丹利量化和衍生品策略部门在周四临近尾盘时表示，“过去30分钟内，市场紧张情绪变得更加明显。我们预计未来一周宏观系统性策略将需要抛售超过400亿美元的股票，其中大部分来自CTA。”\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cimg style=\"display: block; 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