[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio291ddd0b":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":28,"columnUrl":30,"subscription":31,"footer":43,"text":78},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio291ddd0b","美股 SNDK 和 MU 还有多大的上涨空间？","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio291ddd0b","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>DRAM合约价预期飙升：一季度或暴涨95%，Sandisk (SNDK) 和美光 MU还在再涨\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>高盛分析师Giuni Lee团队在报告中指出，2026年一季度主要应用领域的DRAM定价预测均已大幅上调。特别是传统DRAM的整体定价，预计将在2025年四季度环比上涨45-50%的基础上，于2026年一季度进一步实现90-95%的环比增长。这一预测数据显著高于高盛此前对三星和SK 海力士 77-82%的环比增长预期，同时也高于华尔街的一致预期。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>移动端NAND（eMMC\u002FUFS）方面，2026年一季度的合约价格也预计环比上涨55-65%，这与高盛此前对整体NAND定价环比上涨45-70%的预测基本一致。尽管消费电子需求在淡季有所减弱，但企业级SSD（eSSD）和AI相关存储需求的强劲，导致智能手机和PC客户获得的供应配额有限，从而继续推高了这些细分市场的价格。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>PC与服务器DRAM：供应短缺推高溢价\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>在细分领域，PC DRAM和服务器DRAM的涨价动力尤为强劲。TrendForce（集邦咨询）已将2026年一季度PC DRAM合约价格预测上调至环比增长105-110%，同时维持二季度环比增长20-25%的预测。这一数据远高于高盛此前预估的80-90%，暗示市场存在进一步的上行空间。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>具体来看，1月份DDR4 8GB模组价格环比上涨83%至85美元，DDR5 8GB模组价格环比上涨90%至75美元。随着部分价格谈判直至1月份才结束，且供应商库存持续紧张，本季度剩余时间内价格仍有进一步上涨的可能。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>服务器端同样面临供不应求的局面。尽管供应商已将部分产能从PC和智能手机转向服务器，但在北美和中国云服务提供商（CSP）强劲需求的支撑下，供应依然受限，供应商的定价权保持强势。TrendForce将2026年一季度服务器DRAM合约价格预测上调至环比增长88-93%，略高于高盛此前75-80%的预期。值得注意的是，DDR5相比DDR4的溢价正在收窄，1月份DDR5 64GB模组相比同规格DDR4的溢价已降至9%。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>移动端DRAM：AI需求挤占产能\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>移动端DRAM市场并未置身事外。TrendForce将2026年一季度LPDDR5X的价格预测从之前的环比增长45-50%大幅上调至88-93%。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>这一激进的涨价预期背后的逻辑在于产能挤压：服务器客户对存储芯片的强劲需求正在扩大其他应用领域的供需缺口。随着供应商优先满足利润更高的服务器和AI相关需求，移动端DRAM的供应变得愈发紧张，从而迫使价格大幅上行。这一最新预测也显著高于高盛此前对三星和海力士在该领域75-80%的环比涨幅预期。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>估值与目标价：重申买入评级\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>美股投资网调研，基于强劲的价格上涨预期，高盛重申了对韩国两大存储巨头的看好。对于三星，高盛基于2026年预期的EV\u002FEBITDA估值模型，给予普通股205,000韩元的目标价，主要下行风险包括存储供需恶化及智能手机利润率收缩。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>对于SK 海力士，高盛给予1,200,000韩元的12个月目标价。分析师指出，鉴于海力士在HBM（高带宽内存）收入上的显著增长，其相对于三星应享有30%的“AI溢价”。该目标价基于2.8倍的目标市净率（P\u002FB）计算得出，参考了上一轮强劲定价上行周期（2009-2010年）的估值峰值。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>综上所述，虽然短期现货市场的价格波动引发了投资者的恐慌，但从高盛及TrendForce的数据来看，存储芯片行业的合约价格正处于近年来最猛烈的上涨周期之中。市场对于“周期见顶”的担忧，或是一次因信息不对称而导致的错杀。\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202602-stk\u002FUploadervsgb0ksfjve_2026_02_02_11_33_54.jpg","2026-02-02T19:31:35.917","2026.02.02","2026\u002F02\u002F02",51529,[22,23],"SNDK","MU","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":29,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":24,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":25,"price":25,"priceText":26,"priceBadgeText":26,"priceBadgeClass":27,"freeForMinGroupLevel":25,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22,23],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":32,"services":33,"recentDocuments":42},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[34,38],{"productId":35,"serviceName":36,"priceText":37},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":39,"serviceName":40,"priceText":41},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":44,"images":69,"summaryHtml":74,"aboutTitle":75,"aboutHtml":76,"copyrightHtml":77},[45,48,51,54,57,60,63,66],{"label":46,"url":47},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":49,"url":50},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":52,"url":53},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":55,"url":56},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":58,"url":59},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":61,"url":62},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":64,"url":65},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":67,"url":68},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[70,71,72,73],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":79,"search":80,"searchPlaceholder":80,"hotContent":81,"draft":82,"noData":83,"searchNoData":84,"edit":85,"editVideo":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]