[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio16cf7177":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio16cf7177","AI砸钱太多被嫌弃？分析师喊话：微软(MSFT)惨遭错杀，股价有望反弹26%","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio16cf7177","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">美股投资网获悉，自去年8月以来，微软(MSFT)股价累计下跌约20%。华尔街分析师Bohdan Kucheriavyi认为，微软本轮大跌属于典型的情绪性错杀，长期投资价值被低估。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">在股价下跌期间，微软连续交出亮眼财报，第一财季、第二财季营收均实现双位数百分比增长，持续超出市场预期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">尽管基本面持续向好，微软近几个月股价却走弱。核心原因在于市场过度关注微软在AI基础设施上的巨额投入。此外，伊朗局势推高油价，宏观环境恶化，进一步拖累整体科技股表现。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">考虑到庞大的订单积压以及持续升温的云计算需求，微软下周发布的三季度业绩有望延续稳健表现。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">市场反应严重过度\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">微软在1月底公布二季度财报后遭遇历史级大跌，但当期经营数据十分亮眼营收同比增长16.8%至813亿美元，每股收益4.14美元，较预期高出0.22美元;云业务营收突破500亿美元，剩余履约义务总额同比大增110%，达到6250亿美元。Kucheriavyi强调，在成熟科技企业中，如此高速的订单扩张极为罕见。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">不过，微软坦言AI需求爆发带来算力供给不足，这也是本轮股价大跌的重要因素。由于产能限制问题，该公司目前预计第三季度Azure的增长率(按固定汇率计算)将在37%至38%之间。考虑到二季度这一增速为38%，微软云业务的增速或出现环比放缓。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">好消息是，Azure第三季度的业绩可能超出预期，并有望在未来几个季度加速增长。毕竟，微软第二季度财报表明，算力需求持续超过供应，产能限制是唯一的问题。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">面对AI算力紧缺难题，微软已经采取多项举措。去年，微软已与Nebius(NBIS)、CoreWeave(CRWV)、Nscale和Lambda等新型云服务提供商签署了价值超过600亿美元的协议，以获取外部算力。本月初，微软还宣布扩大与Nscale的合作，以期未来进一步提升计算储备。借助外部合作，微软无需从零新建数据中心，便可快速扩张Azure算力规模。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">如果三季度财报显示新增算力逐步落地，意味着产能瓶颈将持续缓解。这也将消除压制云业务增长、拖累微软股价的最大利空因素。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">微软其他主要产品的表现也值得期待。M365 Copilot付费用户数量已超过1500万，同比增长160%。随着微软不断为Copilot添加更多功能，使其成为一款强大的AI助手，用户数量还有进一步增长的潜力。三季度财报可能会验证这一点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">综合来看，微软基本面并未走弱，下周发布的三季度财报大概率延续稳健表现。市场目前预计微软Q3营收为814美元，同比增长16%；每股收益为4.06美元，同比增长17%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">微软股价后续怎么走?\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">目前微软的市盈率约为25倍，处于近年来的低位。Kucheriavyi基于DCF模型(现金流折现模型)测算，微软当前合理估值为每股533.80美元，比当前股价高出约26%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">基于微软业绩的DCF估值测算\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">而华尔街分析师对微软的前景更为乐观，平均目标价为每股578.92美元，意味着上涨空间达36%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">不过，当前微软仍面临多重挑战公司资本开支大幅增加，算力约束或限制云业务增长。同时，微软近45%商业订单与OpenAI深度绑定，而后者短期盈利无望，长期合作暗藏隐忧。除此之外，地缘冲突持续，霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻风险加剧全球衰退忧虑，也将对微软业务构成风险。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">尽管上述风险客观存在，Kucheriavyi仍坚信微软长期成长逻辑未变。短期错杀之后，这家科技龙头估值修复空间广阔，具备良好的中长期配置价值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 每天处理千万级股票数据：捕捉期权大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准交易信号第一时间发到您手机APP！\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FM\u002FMSFT\u002FMSFT.jpg","2026-04-24T15:02:15","2026.04.24","2026\u002F04\u002F24",37905,[22],"MSFT","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" 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href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":68,"summaryHtml":73,"aboutTitle":74,"aboutHtml":75,"copyrightHtml":76},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":60,"url":61},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":63,"url":64},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":66,"url":67},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[69,70,71,72],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]